- I am a former bitcoin skeptic that is now a bitcoin believer. Thread.
- The thing that turned me off to crypto wasn’t the technology or the principles behind it–it was the cult surrounding it. Bitcoin Jesus, Coin Daddy, all that nonsense. To a seasoned investor, that was a sure sign of a bubble. And it was.
- Also, it was the idiotic risk management. The crypto world is full of people who say they will never sell. That’s what the gold world was like in 2011. Everything is a trade. Everything is meant to be sold at some time.
- I get it that you hate fiat, and someday we will all be transacting in bitcoin, etc. etc., but in the meantime, everything is a trade, and the XBTUSD relationship fluctuates over time. Be a trader.
- As for the cult stuff, I have seen quite a few investment cults in my lifetime. Dot com was the biggest. Funny thing about dot com–you had your share of Jesuses and rappers back then, and then tech had a decade-long bear market, and then the REAL bull market begun.
- The FANG that we have today–with trillion dollar market caps–is the echo of the dot com boom–20 years later. That is what crypto is going through now, in compressed time. The bubble phase is over. The real investment phase has begun.
- I don’t think it is possible for my conviction to get much higher. I won’t go into detail here, but it is mostly because of worrying political developments. There has never been more of a need for a stateless currency. And that need will only increase.