Trump’s odds of winning in 2020 are ten percent at best

Trump’s odds of winning in 2020 are ten percent at best. Impeachment will make his odds worse, even if Senate acquits him. If he loses, he’s immediately arrested by New York State, and never gets out of prison. He’s literally betting his life on 10% odds. It’s all he has left.

Trump might cut a resignation plea deal, but if so he’ll still go to prison. He’s elderly and in extremely poor physical and mental health. He probably wouldn’t live through even a brief prison sentence. So he’s basically dead already.

Trump is delusional and increasingly coddled by his babysitters. But you can tell from his behavior that in his comparatively lucid moments, he understands that there’s a 90% chance he’s going to spend the rest of his life in a cage.

This isn’t “optimism” on my part. It’s just the factual reality. Trump is the most remote longshot for reelection in modern presidential history, and if he loses, he dies in a cage. You folks need to understand this if you want to understand the next year in American politics.

Also, the more screwed Trump gets, the more the media tries to scare you with doomsday fantasies about how he magically wins, because that’s how they keep you tuned in. The media literally exists for ratings and no other factors.

Today was one of the most devastating days that any president has ever had. Yet most (not all) TV pundits are busy talking about how Trump is now somehow magically winning, without bothering to explain why, of course. Turn that shit off.

Yes, Trump will be arrested the second he’s no longer president. New York already has a well-documented grand jury in the process of indicting him. There is 100% chance Trump is arrested if he loses. Not 99.9% chance , but 100% chance.

No, Trump can’t magically stay in office if he loses. By law he’d no longer be president, so law enforcement would drag him out by his heels, for the protection of the newly sworn-in president. This is simply how it works. Trump dens’t have a magic wand. He just doesn’t.

These stupid fatalists within the Resistance, who stare at MSNBC all day hoping to be scared shitless by the latest fearmongering, so they can go online and yell “Trump’s gonna win no matter what,” are the WHOLE FUCKING PROBLEM.

No, Trump can’t just wave a magic wand and rig the election. It’s extraordinarily difficult pull off unless the margin in swing states is razor thin to begin with, as in 2016. That was a massive fluke. Win by enough votes in 2020, and the election can’t be rigged.

Facts aren’t “optimism” or “wishful thinking.” I’m the biggest cynic out there – but the facts say Trump is already very probably screwed, and easily pushed into “definitely screwed” territory with some hard work on our part.

All we have to do is work hard and work smart in this election, and Trump gets locked in a cage forever. It is as simple as that. There is nothing else to this. Push all that other bullshit aside, and get to work!


Palmer Report


Updated: December 18, 2019 — 6:10 pm
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How can we win if nothing is being done to safeguard the elections from inevitable interference and GOP cheating?😕

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Anonymous

Do not underestimate his base. If dems can’t support any candidate that runs, and don’t get support of minorities and some independent voters, he absolutely can win in 2020

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The substance of what you’re saying is true, but you’re exaggerating a bit. I can’t imagine that any responsible data pundit would rate T’s re-election chances as low as 10%; and even if/when he loses, NYS is probably not going to indict him THAT quickly.

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Anonymous

This is not helpful. He had terrible odds in 2016 and still pulled it off. Instead people should register AND vote in droves. Data saying he is certain loser lowers participation with a “oh well, my vote is not needed”

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Anonymous

This has been an impossibly long day, so I’m going to choose to believe this before I go to sleep…

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Anonymous

You haven’t been outside a city in a while, have you? Cause they LOVE Trump and everything he represents, however vile it may be, outside of major metro areas.

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No president in US history has ever won twice without the popular vote. What would it say about our country if Trump was the first? On top of this, he faces multiple Republican challengers and an impeachment. Him winning in 2020 is unlikely, but I don’t believe he will go quietly

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It would help if the Dems would focus on a strong candidate and push them up. No, we have candidates folding like lawn chairs, dems who are either too loss on populace matters or acting like the center is gonna win them the election. 10% is low.

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Anonymous

What would be the equivalent Dem ad this time to the Atom Bomb/Girl with Daisy ad that scared the country shitless against Goldwater? We will need the equivalent played 10 times an hour. We need a landslide.

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Anonymous

I wish I had this confidence! His chances are greater as their are many, many sycophants along with many poorly educated, or simply stupid people that don’t care that he’s a criminal. We’re going to need to defeat him at the polls.

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Anonymous

Five gets you ten that he pulls a Vesko to Russia. The results of that hinge on what benefits Putin more. Rescuing Trump….or throwing him under the bus.